Author name: Colin J.N. Wilson

Volcanoes: Characteristics, Tipping Points, and those Pesky Unknown Unknowns

The geological record of volcanic eruptions suggests that scientists are some way from being able to forecast eruptions at many of the world’s volcanoes. There are three reasons for this. First, continuing geological discoveries show that our knowledge is incomplete. Second, knowledge is limited about why, how, and when volcanic unrest turns into eruptions, and over what timescales. Third, there are imbalances between the studies of past eruptions, and the geophysical techniques and observations on modern events, versus the information needed or demanded by society. Scientists do not yet know whether there are other, presently unknown, factors that are important in controlling eruptions, or if there is an inherent unknowability about some volcanic systems.

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The Life and Times of Silicic Volcanic Systems

Silicic volcanic systems provide timed snapshots at the Earth’s surface of the magmatic processes that also build complementary plutons in the crust. Links between these two realms are considered here using three Quaternary (<2.6 Ma) examples from New Zealand and the USA. In these systems, magmatic processes can be timed and the changes in magmatic conditions can be followed through the sequence of quenched volcanic eruption products. Before an eruption, magma accumulation processes can occur on timescales as short as decades, and whole magma systems can be rebuilt in millennia. Silicic volcanic processes, in general, act on timescales that are too rapid to be effectively measured in the exposed plutonic record.

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Supereruptions and Supervolcanoes: Processes and Products

Pyroclastic deposits and lava flows generated by supereruptions are similar to, but tens of times larger than, those observed in historic eruptions. Physical processes control eruption styles, which then dictate what products are available for sampling and how well the eruption sequence can be determined. These erupted products and their ordering in time permit reconstruction of the parental magma chamber. Supervolcanoes also have smaller eruptions that provide snapshots of magma chamber development in the lead-in to and aftermath of supereruptions. Many aspects of supereruption dynamics, although on a vast scale, can be understood from observations or inferences from smaller historic and prehistoric events. However, the great diversity in the timings of supereruptions and in the eruptive behaviour of supervolcanoes present continuing challenges for research.

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December 2025 --The Variscan Orogeny in Europe – Understanding Supercontinent Formation

The Variscan orogen formed between 380 and 300 million years ago through several accretionary and collisional cycles, culminating with the construction of the Pangea supercontinent. This process occurred via sequential opening and closure of oceanic basins, synchronous detachment of Gondwana derived continental ribbons, and their outboard amalgamation onto the Laurussia margin. The Variscan orogen is rather unique compared with other orogenic belts on Earth: its overthickened and dominantly magmatic crust in the central belt, surprisingly minor mantle involvement in the magmatic and geodynamic processes, coherent and pulsed magmatism along the collision suture, and its complex accretionary history. Because its final product, Pangea, is the youngest and best-understood supercontinent on Earth, the Variscan orogeny offers clues for understanding the mechanisms of supercontinent formation.